"Todo el mundo sabe por qué perdimos": JD Vance atribuye la derrota en elecciones a la guerra en Irán

El vicepresidente de Estados Unidos, JD Vance, culpó este miércoles al descontento por la impopular guerra que el presidente Donald Trump lanzó contra Irán como la principal causa de la estrepitosa derrota republicana en las elecciones legislativas.

Recordemos que en estas votaciones se produjo un “tsunami” demócrata, con candidatos de ese sector recuperando el control de la Cámara de Representantes y del Senado estadounidense.

Horas después de que los pronósticos confirmaran mayorías demócratas amplias en ambas cámaras, Vance acudió a la red social X (ex Twitter) para publicar: “La razón por la que perdimos es la guerra. El propio presidente lo dijo anoche”. La declaración es vista como un aparente intento por distanciarse del conflicto de cara a una posible candidatura a la Casa Blanca en 2028.

JD Vance atribuye la derrota republicana a la guerra contra Irán

El vicepresidente hizo así referencia a los comentarios de Trump, quien señaló que la guerra con Irán fue “parte de ello”, pero que seguía estando justificada. “Si alguien quiere argumentar que valió la pena, que perder el Senado durante los próximos seis años fue un costo aceptable, que lo diga. Que defienda que fue un precio que merecía pagarse. Se puede estar de acuerdo o no, pero al menos sería una postura honesta“, añadió Vance.

Vance también reconoció que los votantes republicanos que apoyaron a Trump y a él mismo hace dos años habían cambiado de bando debido a los efectos que ha tenido el conflicto sobre la economía estadounidense. “Todo el mundo sabe por qué perdimos. Y cualquier conversación franca sobre hacia dónde vamos desde aquí tiene que empezar por ahí”, apuntó.

El político republicano también señaló que una encuestadora a la que respeta mostró que la guerra con Irán y la economía fueron factores clave para que los votantes abandonaran a los republicanos, junto con el deseo de “cambiar nuestra relación con Israel”. Vance, crítico acérrimo desde hace años del intervencionismo en política exterior, supuestamente se había mostrado escéptico entre bastidores respecto a la guerra contra Irán.

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026